Why CLV & CLEV Matter
CLV and CLEV are two of the most important metrics used on Bet2Invest to evaluate whether a strategy has a repeatable edge.
They are not perfect, but they are much harder to “game” than short‑term results, and they are widely used in sharp betting to assess whether someone consistently beats the market price.
Important: CLV and CLEV are indicators, not certainties. They have not been formally “proved” as guaranteed long‑term predictors, and we cannot be 100% sure they will always translate into long‑term profitability for every sport, market, or strategy.
Definitions
CLV (Closing Line Value)
CLV compares the odds you took when you placed your bet to the closing odds (the final Pinnacle price right before the event starts).
Intuition:
If you consistently take better odds than the close, you are “beating the market”.
If you consistently take worse odds than the close, you are usually paying too much (at inefficient prices).
CLEV (CLV without the margin)
Odds include a bookmaker margin (vig). CLEV is a variant of CLV that removes the margin so the comparison focuses on the underlying market probability rather than the bookmaker’s edge.
On Bet2Invest, CLEV is used to better isolate pure market efficiency.
In simple terms: CLV tells you if you beat the closing price; CLEV tells you if you beat the closing price after removing the bookmaker margin.
Why CLV/CLEV are so important
1) Results are noisy, CLV is a process metric
Short‑term yield is heavily impacted by variance:
a good strategy can lose money for weeks
a bad strategy can look “great” for 30–50 bets
CLV/CLEV measure the quality of your entries, not the outcomes of a small sample.
Winning is not the same as having an edge. Beating the closing line consistently is often considered one of the strongest signs of edge in sports betting.
2) The closing line is the best public benchmark
In sharp markets, the closing line reflects:
the aggregation of information (injuries, lineups, motivation, weather…)
liquidity and sharp action
market efficiency improving over time
If your prices are better than the close over a large sample, it suggests your model/timing/information tends to be ahead of the market.
3) It helps you build and refine strategies
CLV/CLEV are actionable:
if your CLV is negative, you may need to bet earlier, change leagues, change market types, or stop chasing steam.
if your CLV is positive but results are negative, it often means variance (or a sample that is still too small).
How to interpret CLV/CLEV
There are multiple ways to express CLV. Regardless of the exact format, the interpretation is the same:
Positive CLV / CLEV = you beat the market closing price on average.
Negative CLV / CLEV = you take worse prices than the close on average.
What matters most
Sample size – CLV becomes meaningful after hundreds of bets.
Liquidity – low-liquidity markets move more and can make CLV easier to achieve but harder to scale.
Consistency – stable, repeatable CLV is a stronger signal than occasional spikes.
To understand why liquidity matters, see Best practices.
Common misconceptions (important)
“Positive CLV guarantees profit”
No. Even with a real edge, you can run bad for a long time.
CLV increases the probability of long‑term profitability, but it does not remove variance.
“CLV is everything”
Also no. CLV can be misleading if:
you bet markets with very low liquidity (easy to move)
you cherry-pick markets or timing in a way that can’t be replicated
Bet2Invest therefore looks at CLV/CLEV alongside other indicators (volume, yield, drawdown, liquidity…).
How this fits into Bet2Invest
When you place bets inside a Bet2Invest bankroll, the platform can later compute:
the closing odds on Pinnacle
your CLV and CLEV
additional market context (margin, line movement, etc.)
This is one of the reasons Bet2Invest relies on Pinnacle as a reference: it makes strategies comparable on a consistent and efficient market.
If you haven’t yet, see Analyze Pinnacle Markets to understand how to browse markets and start tracking your own.
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